<![CDATA[Working Notes]]>https://workingnotes.iohttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X2ce!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb5b6bbc8-78ee-4b2f-a280-571ead650ed7_2785x2785.jpegWorking Noteshttps://workingnotes.ioSubstackMon, 03 Aug 2026 14:47:55 GMT<![CDATA[SpaceX S-1 Analysis]]>https://workingnotes.io/p/spacex-s-1-analysishttps://workingnotes.io/p/spacex-s-1-analysisSun, 05 Jul 2026 17:31:28 GMTThis is an overview of the SpaceX S-1 that dropped last month through the lens of a CPA. I don’t focus on stock price or all the fanfare surrounding the company going public; instead, I take a look at some accounting-based facts and figures in an attempt to parse what is really going on under the headlines. Hopefully you find this informative!

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]]><![CDATA[Working Notes Pod: Episode One]]>https://workingnotes.io/p/working-notes-pod-episode-onehttps://workingnotes.io/p/working-notes-pod-episode-oneMon, 08 Jun 2026 22:11:41 GMTThe first episode of the Working Notes podcast centers on AI and the current buildout. Here’s a rundown of what I go over:

  1. AI can be genuinely useful and still be a terrible investment at the wrong price.

  2. The technology can survive even if the first capital structure collapses.

  3. We have seen all this before (and I provide a few examples)

    1. In each case, the build-out was real, but the speed, financing structure, and

  4. In my view, the key question is not “is AI useful?” but “who is holding the risk?”

  5. A lot of today’s AI financing is circular, opaque, and dependent on assumptions about demand that nobody can really audit yet.

  6. When the major AI companies go public, the S-1 filings will matter more than the headlines.

    1. The back half of those filings, especially the footnotes, will tell us where the pressure really is: revenue quality, useful lives, commitments, depreciation, stock comp, reseller arrangements, and demand durability.

I am not saying AI is useless or the utility is a mirage (albeit it is currently oversold and overhyped). I’m arguing something narrower: a real technology can be financially pumped beyond what the underlying business can support, and I think that’s what we’re seeing here. What matters is demand durability and if the companies, as they are currently operating, will ever be able to turn a profit, and who gets left holding the bag if they can’t.

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